Ken Moraif argues that "Buy and Hold" is a flawed strategy.
Click on the image above to watch his interview on Fox Business 'After The Bell'...
Financial & Retirement Planning
Your retirement should be your second childhood without parental supervision.
You should enjoy yourself -- go play, travel, have fun! Stay out late!
To do that you must have a solid financial plan that you have confidence in. Have you ever seen change like we are experiencing now? Have you ever seen deficits like we are running? Markets so volatile? The future so insecure?
If you are concerned about your financial security, please sign up for Ken's next seminar. It's designed for those of you who are at the average retirement age, which is over the age of 50. You will also get to enjoy some of the now World Famous Oatmeal Raisin and Chocolate Chunk Cookies!
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I Stand Behind My Prediction of Dow 11,500
People have been asking about my Fearless Forecast, where I said that I see the Dow at 11, 500. Do I still see it happening light of the current market? And if so, why?
In my view, bear markets are inevitable. Like hurricanes or tornados or forest fires, they just happen. We can try to delay them, but we can't stop them. I believe that there's a 100 percent probability we will have another bear market. Why do I think the market will fall this time around?
The central banks are herding money into the stock market, so it is rising. We have national and global debt at incredible levels. We're going deeper and deeper in debt every day, and the banks are printing more and more money to keep up. I truly think this is a bubble, and it will pop, putting us in a bear market.
How severe will this one be? The definition of a bear market is a drop of 20 percent or more. The granddaddy of all bears occurred in 1929, when the market plunged 87 percent. We've had 33 bear markets in the last 100 years—an average of one every three years—and the average drop of all those bears is 37 percent. Recent ones have been bigger: In 2000, the market fell 49 percent, and in 2008, it dropped
57 percent. Based on what’s happening with the market and the economy, I think the next big drop will be around 35 percent. If that's the case, a 35 percent drop from 18,000 (about where the Dow is now) equals 11,500.
Of course, I can’t predict the market accurately every time. No one can. But in 2013, I said the Dow would hit 16,000 by year-end. That was a major increase in the market, and it happened. In 2014, I said that the Dow would hit 18,000 (a 23 percent rise), and it did. My 2013 Fearless Forecast was accurate, too, and as you may know, I told people to get out of the market prior to the 2008 bear. So I may not always be perfect, but I am an educated guesser.
I wish I could tell you exactly when the next bear will arrive. Wouldn't it be wonderful if I could? But I can't. I'm human. But I can tell you that I think it's inevitable that it will come soon and when it does, I think the Dow will hit 11, 500.
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