Transcript: Hi, I’m Ken Moraif, and I wanted to send this video to you rather than our normal weekly market alert email. Before I get started, I want to apologize for not wearing a tie for the occasion. I’m actually not working today, but I was watching the market very carefully, and I guess I’m never not working.
I’m always ready to go back to work, but I wanted to send you this email just to let you know that the short answer to the question of whether we have reached our sell signal, the answer is that we have not. We are within a sneeze of doing so, and we’re very close, but we have not reached it yet.
Now, the question that I would ask you, if you’re receiving this video, then you probably are not a client of ours, and I would like to encourage you to take advantage of the opportunity to sit down with one of our advisors and review your retirement planning, to look at at how you’re invested, and most importantly, given the volatility that we’re seeing in the market right now, preparing for that, just at least looking at the game plan. As you know, we have a strategy that we call ‘Buy, Hold, and Sell’ and in November 2007, we told our clients to sell and get out and stay out of equities until June 2009. So for about a year and a half, through the whole credit crisis, market crash, you know, people that followed our advice were not in equities, and that now, we haven’t reached that point, but we’re very close, and my question for you would be what happens if this is the next bear market? What if the market is going to go down for 20 or 30 or 40 percent from here? You know, do you have a plan to address that? What are you doing to protect your retirement front? And if the answer is you’re not doing anything, then I would say that at least you ought to talk to us and understand what we do and see if it makes sense to you. Right now, with the way the market is behaving, it’s kind of this weird feeling that’s going on. I don’t know that we can necessarily attribute it entirely to China. I know that that executive was arrested, and people are worried about that, but, you know, these kind of things happen, and countries resolve them, and so I don’t know that you can pin it on that. The Federal Reserve, as I’ve chronicled in our emails, I think it is concerning they’re raising interest rates in a time when global debt is so high, and certainly that’s concerning, but I don’t know that you can pin this kind of market volatility to that.
There’s kind of something in the ether that’s worrying everyone that I don’t know that you could put your finger on it, and it reminds me of 2007. In 2007 profits were actually quite good. Unemployment was not as good as it is today, but it was decent. We also had consumer confidence was in pretty good shape, and the economy was growing at 3 percent, you know, not like it is currently, but still pretty good, and so a lot of the signs of terrible things to come were not there in November 2007, when we hit our sell signal last time, or the time just before the credit crisis. So this feels eerily similar, where we couldn’t really figure out what was driving that, but yet something was, and the market has a way of sensing bad things. So our strategy’s not perfect. Those of you who follow us, you know that in 2010, 2011 and 2015, our strategy said to sell. All three of those times were times of great market turmoil, and we went to safety and then got back in later, so we’re not concerned about it being wrong or a false alarm as we call it. We’re more concerned that this actually is the real one, the big one, and so if you’re concerned about it, if it’s worrying you, I encourage you once again to click on the link that says meet with an advisor, schedule a time to visit. We want to talk with you about your entire financial plan, not just ‘Buy, Hold and Sell.’ We want to build a cash flow analysis for you. We want to look at your diversification, answer your questions about Social Security, about your 401(k), all those kind of things we want to talk with you about, but I think given the market volatility, it highlights the importance in my opinion of at least having a game plan to address if the market is to go way down. Okay? So I encourage you to take advantage of it and click on meet with an advisor and come in and visit with us. We look forward to being able to help you if we can. Thank you.