Market Alert February 23rd, 2019: Should We Be Kicking Ourselves for Missing the Recent Rally?
As a firm that specializes in Retirement Planning, our two goals for you are:
- For you to have Financial Peace of Mind and
- For Your Money to Last As Long As You Do.
Our investment philosophy of Buy, Hold, and PROTECT! is designed to give us Unlimited Upside with a Tolerable Downside.
5 Reasons We Shouldn’t Kick Ourselves for Missing the Recent Rally
We recently saw a MarketWatch article by Brett Arends that we could have written ourselves. The five reasons are listed below:
- You haven’t really missed that much
- Don’t be fooled — nothing has really changed
- You were on the sidelines for good reason
- You’re smart not to discount the current risks
- Many big ‘up’ days take place during bear markets
For detail on these reasons, you can read the entire article here: MarketWatch article: 5 reasons you shouldn’t kick yourself
The list of Nobel Prize winners that agree with our posture of being concerned about the downside risk continues to increase. To quote the MarketWatch article,
According to price-to-earnings or “PE” data tracked by Yale University finance professor and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, the S&P 500 is about 75% above its historic average valuation. Ten-year forward average returns fall nearly monotonically as starting Shiller P/E’s increase,” warned hedge fund manager Cliff Asness of AQR in a 2012 research paper, as he studied the S&P 500 going back to the 1920s. Also, he added, “as starting Shiller P/E’s go up, worst cases get worse and best cases get weaker.
Today’s level? Compared to history, we’re in the most expensive 10% of starting valuations, according to Asness’ data. “Average” 10-year returns from here? Based on history it’s about 0.5% a year after inflation, he calculated.
We are thankful that we have a protection strategy.
I would like to invite you to come to one of our seminars. They are designed for those of you who are retired or retiring soon, and they are free.
At the free retirement seminar we will answer these burning questions:
- How do I help protect my retirement from the next market crash?
- How do I avoid three basic “pitfalls” of retirement distribution planning?
- Am I on track to be able to retire?
- When should I take Social Security? 62? 66? 70?
- Am I diversified the way I should be?
- How much can I afford to spend during my retirement?
- How can I fight inflation?
- How do I determine how much risk is appropriate for me?
- Do I take my pension or a lump?
- How do I avoid having 85% of my social security getting taxed?
- Should I rollover my 401(k)?
How do I reduce my income taxes in the future?
By the way, if you have friends, associates, or family members that are still invested in equities, please send them our way. They may be exposed to severe financial losses if this turns out to be a terrible bear market.
We Will Go Back in the Market If the Trend Changes Because There Are Bull Runs within Bear Markets
The above discussion may make you think that we should not go back in and ignore our strategy if we reach our buy signal. We want you to know that within bear markets there have been bull runs. If the trend changes, we cannot ignore it, because we are nothing if we do not stick to our discipline.
That is why, if we hit our buy signal before the middle of June, we will go in gradually in an attempt to mitigate our downside, but mainly to participate in the new upward trend when we have confidence in it.
- 1) 5 Reasons You Should Be Glad You Are Out Of The Market – Part 1
2) 5 Reasons You Should Be Glad You Are Out Of The Market – Part 2
3) Social Security Questions: How To Take Spousal Benefits
4) If You Miss The Best Trading Days…
5) Estate Tip: How To Protect An Inheritance From Being Squandered
If you are not a client of Money Matters, we want to visit with you! Let us worry about all this so that you don’t have to.
- Do you know if you have enough money to retire on?
- Do you have a plan for what to do when the next market crash comes?
- What are 5 strategies that you can use to reduce your income taxes?
- How do you plan for your retirement cash flow?
- What should you do to maximize your Social Security benefits?
- Have you diversified the way you should be?
We would love to review your retirement plan with you and see if we can help you. If we can help you, that’s terrific, if not that’s fine too. Either way, there is no charge, there is no obligation, and we will part friends!
There is nothing more important to us than that. It is our singular goal to keep our clients from becoming poor. Preserving the wealth that they have built is job number one for us. I encourage you to join the Money Matters family!
Perhaps you were given a package by your employer. Perhaps you sold an asset and want to know how to properly invest the proceeds. Perhaps you inherited money and want to keep it safe and grow it if you can. Perhaps you just want a second opinion. These are all reasons for you to take advantage of all of the resources that we at Money Matters have to offer you.
We want to help you to achieve your retirement goals.
Thank you for subscribing to this newsletter. I hope it finds you and yours in good health and spirits.
Ken Moraif, CFP®, MBA