Market Alert April 9th, 2018: What if this is the beginning of the next market crash?

Our two goals for our clients are for them to have financial peace of mind and for their money to last as long as they do.

Our investment philosophy of Buy, Hold, and SELL! Is designed to give us unlimited upside with a tolerable downside.

  • We continue to stand by our Fearless Forecast of Dow 26,500 by the end of 2018, but now is an appropriate time to start the discussion on “what if this is the long-awaited bear market?”
  • According to Ned Davis Research, the average bear market is a drop of 37%. The S&P 500 index fell 49% in the bear market of Y2K and 57% in the bear market of 2008.


In the chart above the red line shows you that an average bear market would wipe out over 4 years worth of gains.  The green line shows that a bear market like Y2K would take the S&P 500 index back to where it was December 1999, wiping out over 18 years of gains. The purple line shows that a bear market like 2008 would wipe out over 19 years of gains, taking it back to where it was in December of 1998.

The problem with all of this is that taking losses of this magnitude require so much time to get back to even. If you are drawing from your investments to live on, you may never get back to even.

Between now and the rest of your life, do you think there will be another bear market? Sounds like a dumb question but if you answered “yes,” then I would ask you: what are you doing about it?

As you may know, our Buy, Hold, and SELL! strategy signaled in October of Y2K and in November of 2007.  We counseled our clients and those of you that got our email market alert that it was time to sell on November 27th, 2007 and advised to stay out until June of 2009, when our buy signal came.

  • Do you have a plan for what to do when the next market crash comes?
  • Do you know if you have enough money to retire on?
  • What are 5 strategies that you can use to reduce your income taxes?
  • How do you plan for your retirement cash flow?
  • What should you do to maximize your Social Security benefits?
  • Are you properly diversified?

We would love to review your entire financial plan, analyze what you have and see if we can help you. If we can, that’s terrific, if not that’s fine too. Either way, there is no charge or obligation, and we will part friends!

Over 50? Schedule a free retirement consultation with one of our financial advisors. We will help you to create your personalized retirement plan

Do not get complacent. Overconfidence is dangerous when it comes to investing.

We must never let our guard down and never take the market for granted. It is when overconfidence sets in that the market is the most vulnerable.

The best time to plan for the next market crisis is now!

I would like to invite you to come to one of our seminars. They are designed for those of you who are retired or retiring soon, and they are free.

At the free retirement seminar we will answer these burning questions:

  • How do I protect my retirement from the next market crash?
  • How do I avoid the three basic “pitfalls” of retirement distribution planning?
  • Am I on track to be able to retire?
  • When should I take Social Security? 62? 66? 70?
  • Am I diversified properly?
  • How much can I afford to spend during my retirement?
  • What is the best investment I can use to fight inflation with?
  • How do I determine how much risk is appropriate for me?
  • Do I take my pension or a lump?
  • How do I avoid having 85% of my social security is taxed?
  • Should I rollover my 401(k)?
  • How do I reduce my income taxes in the future?

Click here to reserve your spot at the next free retirement planning seminar

Look at the chart below:

Click here to listen to this week’s podcast and hear the following topics:

  1. Eerily Familiar!
  2. It Is Time To Change Your Password
  3. One Big Reason You May Want To Take Social Security @ 62
  4. How To Turn $1.8million in $600k
  5. Estate Tip: The SLAT

There is nothing more important to us than that. It is our singular goal to keep our clients from becoming poor. Preserving the wealth that they have built is job number one for us. I encourage you to join the Money Matters family!

I believe that avoiding large losses is the single most important thing that we should be concerned about as investors.

Perhaps you were given a package by your employer. Perhaps you sold an asset and want to know how to properly invest the proceeds. Perhaps you inherited money and want to keep it safe and grow it if you can. Perhaps you just want a second opinion. These are all reasons for you to take advantage of all of the resources that we at Money Matters have to offer you.

We want to help you to achieve your financial goals.

Thank you for subscribing to this newsletter. I hope it finds you and yours in good health and spirits.


Ken Moraif, CFP®, MBA