A radio show listener recently wrote to me: “You talk about the fact that you have this great sell strategy,” he said. “If your strategy is so good, why do you talk about diversification? Why shouldn’t we put every dollar we've got into the stock market since you're going to tell us when to get out anyway?”
Since I am somewhat known for advising investors to get out of the market before the 2008 crash, I’m often asked what I think will cause the next bear market. Recently, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal posed me a version of this question. He asked, “How do you think the French elections will affect the stock markets? And if the outcome doesn’t cause the next market crisis, what do you think will?”
I recently received an email from a radio show listener posing the following scenario: You’re in Vegas and have $1,700,000 riding. A guy walks up to you with a deal: he’ll give you a bet with an upside of $1,800,000 or a downside of $1,000,000. You don’t know the odds. Would you make this bet or pick up your chips and walk?
At the beginning of each year, I present my fearless forecast. This year, I predicted the Dow would hit 21,000. I thought it might take awhile to hit that mark, but it didn’t. We took the express route to 21,000. Now, I think we’ll see Dow, 23,000—but this time I think we’re going to take the scenic route.